My cup is half full today

As United's season lurches dangerously out of control the knives are out and the doom mongerers are predicting the end of time. Danny Mills thinks it could be 10 years before United win another title. He might be right. Football success tends to work in cycles and you need only look at Liverpool's record over the last 20 years to strike fear into the collective heart of United fans. There's good reason to question whether the end of the Fergie era has signalled a return to mediocrity for this great club, almost unthinkable just a year ago. I've been pretty vocal in my own views about Moyes' suitability as manager of United but you have to respect the club for not pressing the panic button just yet, when other clubs with less heritage and tradition would have pulled the plug already. Yet amidst the veneer of self-destruction and almost total capitulation let's just draw a line under one poor season as there remain 5 clear signs for optimism heading into next season. 1) The emergence of Adnan Januzaj You can't credit David Moyes with much this season but you can certainly point to his promotion of this Belgian-Kosovan youngster into United's 1st XI. I've only seen him at close quarters a handful of times but let me tell you he is some player and destined for great things. It speaks volumes that he effectively carried United on his very young shoulders for much of the first half of this season, such has been his skill, confidence and audacity in his breakthrough season. He's a United-type of player at a time where very few others can make that claim. No one has made quite the same impact since Ronaldo, and before him Giggs, He could be as good as both of them in a few years. You heard it here first! 2) Securing Rooney long term will help to attract top talent Scoff you might, but securing Rooney to a long term deal, warding off Chelsea and other suitors is as important to United as the same stance taken by Liverpool over Suarez. Rooney is a talisman for the club. Every time he steps on the pitch, he plays his heart out for United. You can point to his hardline tactics, or those of his agent, in securing lucrative deals but we must overlook this. He will soon be United's all time top goalscorer but beyond this he is a genuine world class talent and the message his continued tenure sends out to those who might consider joining United should not be underestimated. He is a vital part of United's strategy to attract top talent to the club. Top players will still think "I want to play alongside Wayne Rooney". 3) The penny has finally dropped It might be painful viewing to watch United splutter through games with no plan, no imagination and no confidence but you can argue the club needed to drop down a peg or two for the hierarchy to finally see that all was not well. Fergie's achievements of winning the title last season by 11 clear points with what was widely regarded his weakest team are looking even more remarkable now. Yet there have been signs over the past few years that United have failed to recruit in key areas of midfield and were relying on 1 or 2 key players to keep up a major challenge. Last season the marquee signing of Van Persie was enough. This season the squad has been found out. It's fair to say the club's hierarchy didn't take this seriously enough in the summer with an unstructured transfer policy but I don't think anyone at the club will take any further chances now. A revamp is required and it has taken a monumentally poor season for the penny to finally drop 4) An impossible act to follow was SO last season I can't predict the future and a year from now I could still be lamenting another very average season but the smart money is that it can't get much worse than this and that the inevitable dip post Fergie, whilst worse than initially expected or feared, is over and the only way is up from here. Either David Moyes will get money to spend and build his own team in his own mould or the club will break with tradition, realise Moyes is not the right man to take the club forward and bring someone in with more experience and a better playing style with some new players. Whichever one it is, you cannot see United being this disjointed again. That doesn't mean it will lead to immediate riches but there will be a plan and the impossible act of following Fergie will be consigned to history. Perhaps this is part of the bigger plan - no one could have done it justice so Moyes was always a stop gap before the next glorious era. We can live in hope. 5) No European football It might sound obtuse but if United can't qualify for the Champions League next year, (which they can't!) then it's better to miss out on Europe altogether which also looks likely now. Let's face it, players do not want to join United to play in the Europa League. It's Champions League or bust. The Europa League is an unwelcome distraction. The club has to play on Thursday then Sunday and the season often has to start in July. United need a good, pre-season with new signings in place and gelling. The incentive for new players and old is to get back into the Champions League again. Concentrating on domestic success for one season will not harm United, it may enhance future prospects. It's certainly helping Liverpool right now. They look the freshest team in the title race. Some of you might think I'm clutching at straws a little - and only time will tell - but in an age when the media, the fans and the pundits focus on the negatives, it's helpful to see beyond them and work out where there are chinks of light. Right, I'm about to settle down to watch United's latest and most important game of the season - vs. Olympiakos in the CL, where they face an improbable task of overturning a 2 goal deficit with no away goal for protection. It's not impossible, but it's pretty unlikely on current form. I just hope this isn't the last we see of United in this competition for more than a year or 2.

HOW DO YOU SOLVE A PROBLEM CALLED MOYES FEAR?

The misery is complete. Abject surrender to a plucky but ultimately limited Greek opposition means this season has lurched from troublesome to downright pitiful. And from the embers of this defeat there appears little hope of salvaging any positives from this season. A true baptism of fire for a beleaguered David Moyes. We all knew it would be tough. It would be an almost impossible job to replace Sir Alex, to get remotely close to maintaining his incredible standards, and replicate what he has achieved as manager of Manchester United. Yet even the most impartial commentator simply cannot believe what we have witnessed this season. The current champions of England are on their knees, 11 points shy of a Champions League place. I think that is worth reiterating. Not 11 points shy of the leaders, 11 points behind the current 4th placed team and with only 11 games to go, very little opportunity or indeed expectation to qualify automatically for a place in the Champions League next season. That the team with the best momentum currently occupying this spot is Liverpool is all the more galling. This is astonishing. There have been warning signs but it is unfathomable how a club steeped in glory with virtually the same squad that galloped to an unprecedented 20th League title only 9 months ago could have plumbed such depths and lost not only unquestionable belief but worse the hunger and desire that epitomised Fergie's reign. It is easy, of course to lay the blame squarely with David Moyes, but blame him we must. The tired excuses of inheriting a poor squad have worn thin. Moyes has had time to assess the talent available to him, to nurture it and to stamp his mark and authority on those players at his disposal. Tuesday night proved that he is nowhere near the goals he must surely have set himself, whatever they may be. And you see that's part of the problem. What is the Moyes’ way? If we reflect back to his Everton days he built a team with a strong ethic to work for each other. It was not always pretty but it was largely effective and he was rightly applauded for his achievements there, however modest. Man U is a whole new ball game. A global brand, a football superpower. There’s an expectation to win. Success has bred expectation, that is natural. The club needs a strong manager. A manager with swagger and borderline arrogance which Moyes has now demonstrated he does not possess. Instead Moyes looks intimidated by the challenge. We might have forgiven him if he fronted up and told the world that it would take time to get it right, that we should not expect instant success, that he was the right man and we would are that. Instead his obvious difficulty in adjusting to such a challenge has been painfully etched across his face and in every media briefing. He is over cautious, defensive and frankly out of his depth and his own natural caution and reticence has transmitted itself to the team and to the players. His instinct is to manage with a philosophy of we must not lose rather than we must win. It’s the opposite of Fergie and you already wonder if he could ever be the right man. Many have been unsure for a few weeks now and after Tuesday night, many more are voicing concern. Let's consider the season to date. In truth it was a fabulous start away at Swansea and clearly the players were unaffected by new methods and picked up where they left off last season. Business as usual. A cagey boring home draw against Chelsea has gone on to set the tone for the season but at the time it was acceptable. Neither manager wanted to lose so early on. However a disastrous transfer window too painful to explain and question marks over Rooney’s future helped the rot set in quickly. Back to back away defeats at Liverpool and Man City saw United adrift by mid September but still these were deemed hard games and the fixture calendar as much to blame as the lack of cohesion in the team. There remained a sense that some time was needed for new ideas and formations to be adopted. The first real warning came with an unthinkable home defeat to West Brom. Yes the West Bromcurrently on a hideous run and fighting relegation. At the time Moyes batted away criticism to say we should expect it to get worse before it gets better. Hardly words to inspire. Certainly not what the fans would expect to hear. This is a big club. Fans need optimism and leadership, and this was defeatist. In early December, back to back home losses against his old club Everton and then Newcastle neither of who had won at fortress Old Trafford for a combined 50 years appeared to question the spirit at the club. Where was the famed bouncebackability. It did not go unnoticed that whilst both were narrow defeats these are games Man U never lose and indeed no goal was scored in either game. A worrying sign. As we entered 2014 there were genuine signs of recovery. 6 wins in a row and almost ridiculously Moyes was nominated for manager of the month despite those 2 early home losses. United entered the new year with much to prove but with confidence renewed, a cup semi final to negotiate, a new transfer window to help boost the squad and simply the knowledge that historically United (and indeed Everton) always have a strong second half to the season. If we could step back to New Year’s Eve, the half term report would read as follows: “Some teething problems, few areas are work in progress but overall better momentum as we approach the half way point and reason to be optimistic for the second half of the season”. I’m sure someone will have written words to that effect and they simply couldn’t have been more wrong. January was a disaster. In 2014 to date Man United has lost more games than they have won. Another home loss to Spurs on New Year's day was swiftly followed by a wretched home defeat to Swansea in the 3rd round of the FA Cup. A meek surrender to a club that had NEVER before won at Old Trafford and had been beaten so handsomely on the opening day of the season. Moyes was setting some very unwelcome records. The famed Fergie time where so many late United goals had been scored to either win or rescue games was now working in reverse. The club was conceding late winners on a far too regular basis. This was followed by a miserable yet inevitable defeat at Chelsea where despite Chelsea strikers boasted the worst goal record in the top 8, Samuel Eto'o still managed to score a hat trick. A microcosm of the 2 teams’ divergent paths laid bare in one game. There were some mitigating circumstances with injuries to key players but the squad should have coped for other games. Yet worse was still to follow when United managed not only to lose the Carling Cup semi first leg at bottom of the table Sunderland but then contrived to lose the return leg on penalties. And trust me this was the worst penalty shootout in living memory. The last realistic chance of silverware gone, though even the most one-eyed fan would not have relished the prospect of battling an unstoppable Man City to claim that title. It was probably a blessing. Another transfer window came and went without the signing of a central midfield player. What about Mata you say? Surely an outstanding signing for the club, you say. Surely a positive sign that the club can still attract the biggest talent despite the current demise. And of course Mata is a very good player. Chelsea’s best player for 2 seasons and it seemed incredulous they would be willing to sell such a talented player to a main rival. This is a significant demonstration of the power shift in the post-Fergie era. Chelsea were willing to sell Mata because they no longer see Man U as a major threat. This is a huge statement. They were willing to sell a player who was a clear fan’s favourite because he did not fit the philosophy the returning Mourinho wanted to employ. There is such trust in Mourinho as a manager that this decision has hardly been questioned. Mata’s signing may ultimately prove to be shrewd but as things stand it was merely opportunistic. A message to the world to say “now look here, things may seem bad but we are still a big club and can attract big players”. If you look at the club’s resources, however, United have signed a player they do not desperately need. Another no 10 and not a central midfielder that is so obvious to all is desperately required and craved. Rooney already occupies Mata’s favoured position. Kagawa too though he has been mistreated and is shorn of any confidence and his days as a United player seem numbered. And there is Januzaj who is the one bright spot this season and he looks set to play there eventually. Man U do not need Mata for footballing reasons, they signed him to send out a statement. They need a whole new midfield and 2 transfer windows in have registered a panic buy in Fellaini as the only new signing in that area and that has not worked, yet. Incredible. It certainly doesn’t take a genius to work out where Man U’s problems mainly lie. The galvanising effect that the Ozil signing has given Arsenal is already on the wane because they didn’t really need him either. However it was worth it as they are still challenging for major honours and maybe Mata will be too but for now United’s continued malaise shows no signs of let up. And the club hierarchy have to take responsibility here, from the owners to the manager. Predictably then, the pain didn’t stop there. Fulham came to Old Trafford in disarray. Bottom of the table and in real danger of relegation. They took the lead early and held it until the 78th minute when United finally mustered the required energy and attacking flair to score 2 goals in quick succession. Game over, right? No of course not, another late goal conceded and a draw at home to the worst team in the league. Much of the post match commentary centred around United’s predictability. Get the bal wide and cross in without much end product. No guile, no real playmaking. By now it wasn’t a surprise. And so we come full circle to last Tuesday night, the return of the Champions League, the knockout stages. The only chance to play in this premier competition is to do what Chelsea did a couple of years ago and win it outright. It seemed improbable for them then, it’s impossible for United now. Not because Man U can’t overturn the 2-0 deficit. They can. I’m not sure they will but they can. However the teams that lie ahead are too strong and would relish the prospect of facing United. Luck alone will not suffice and quality is distinctly lacking. Man United went into Tuesday’s game having won their qualifying group easily. They had been afforded a plum draw too. It was the one competition Moyes was perhaps expected to find tough but he had led the team to navigate the group well, the 5-0 win in Leverkusen being the one highlight this season. However the tag of favourites in the last 16 was just too much. There are no sufficient words in the English language that I can use here to explain how poor the performance was in Greece. This was the most important game of the season and with Mata ineligible, the team and especially the midfield tasked with taking the field was found horribly wanting. Januzaj was criminally not even in the squad. Cleverley who has become a scapegoat for the decline was included at his expense and it didn’t work. The intensity was poor from the start, the passing sloppy, the lack of quality and leadership exasperating. This was a chance to redeem something from a forgettable season and the performance to a man was dire, the worst European performance in perhaps a decade against a spirited but ultimately average Greek side. The chance has virtually gone and with it any lingering trust in the manager. Moyes manages with fear. The squad play with fear and the future looks bleak with him at the helm. United will not sack him, they will give him time but is this time well invested? Is he the right man for the job, long term? Do we believe the players will respond to him when he has a chance to rebuild? I think we can already say no to all of the above. Sometimes you have to be ruthless in life and this, I’m afraid, is something that needs to be done to safeguard the immediate future of this club. And who, you ask, would I suggest replaces him? Well at this stage of any season candidates are sparse. The decision should not be rushed. The season can hardly get any worse so why not just put Giggs in as caretaker – at least the players will play for him, for the shirt, whilst the club invests time wisely in marketing the club to a manager who can handle it and then give him the funds to really turn things around. My recommendation, for what it’s worth, is Jurgen Klopp at Borussia Dortmund. He plays football the United way. He has domestic and European pedigree. He can do no more at Dortmund than he has achieved, especially with Bayern Munich so dominant, and this might still be seen as a dream job, at least until this summer.